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    Basic Chemical Industry: Seeking the Growth Space of New Coal Chemical Industry

    Column:Industry Dynamics Time:2015-01-05

    Resource endowment determines the development or inevitable choice of new coal chemical industry in China, which indicates that the promotion of the 2012 Fan project will bring new investment growth. At present, China's coal reserves are 114.5 billion tons, which is 32 times of crude oil reserves and 23 times of natural gas reserves in terms of crude oil equivalent. In order to reduce China's dependence on energy and chemical products, the development of coal chemical industry with characteristics is an inevitable choice. According to the "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Planning" and the "Coal Deep Processing Industry Development Policy" which are being compiled by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau, it is expected that 15 coal deep processing demonstration projects will be approved, and we expect to bring at least 300 billion yuan of investment; together with the projects planned by various regions, it is expected that the start-up of all projects will stimulate trillions of investment. Capital size.

    The petrochemical industry in the Middle East and the United States has limited impact on China's coal chemical industry. With the penetration of the original market, the bargaining power of petrochemical producers in the Middle East region has become stronger, and some products have gradually become stronger, mainly reflected in ethylene glycol, methanol and other products. The competitiveness of the petrochemical industry in the United States has been strengthened by the shale gas revolution, but considering the progress of new production capacity, most of the petrochemical industry in the United States will focus on increasing the load of existing units in the next three years. Some production units will be revamped to accept light raw materials such as ethane, but larger additional capacity is expected to be put into operation after 2015. Overall, the impact on China's coal chemical industry is limited.

    Project driven, engineering services companies benefit. We believe that in the future, the requirements for energy efficiency, coal consumption and water consumption of coal chemical industry will be raised, and domestic engineering companies with advantages will stand out. The business scope of engineering service category generally includes planning, consultation, design, procurement, project management and start-up operation in the construction stage. Referring to the scope of work of international engineering contractors can be divided into construction contract, design-construction contract, EPC/turnkey contract, EM+PC, EP, PC, PMC contract, etc. With the growth of domestic companies in large-scale projects, the future development space is larger.

    The new coal chemical products have great development space in the future. We believe that the future development of new coal chemical industry is more promising products, such as coal to natural gas, coal to ethylene glycol, coal to olefin (MTO), and so on. Coal-based natural gas has mature technology and large market capacity, which can effectively optimize China's current energy consumption structure. Coal-based ethylene glycol has cost advantages, domestic companies have made breakthroughs in key indicators such as transmittance, and the future global capacity expansion of ethylene glycol is limited, and the prospects are promising. The start-up of domestic MTO project is expected to drive methanol industry. The recovery of the industry.